【國際中心、政治中心╱綜合報導】「我就像數以萬計的同胞一般，感到深深地失望」，蘇格蘭首席副大臣斯特金（Nicola Sturgeon）昨道出未能成功獨立的心碎。英國廣播公司稱，公投結果顯示統派勢力已深入人心。國內專家認為，未能解決民眾對獨立的種種擔憂，是獨立公投未能過關的主因。
國族認同已鬆動
BBC報導，認同自己是英國人的蘇格蘭民眾2011年有15％，到2014年增為23％。同一時間認為自己是蘇格蘭人者則從75％降為65％。除國族認同鬆動，為公投鋪路的「愛丁堡協議」於2012年10月簽訂後，蘇格蘭統派連續18個月在民調裡都佔上風。
政大外交系教授林碧炤表示，若從年齡分析，會出來投票者普遍年紀較大，他們對過往大英帝國榮光記憶猶新，對社會福利政策與退休金也特別關注。他們不可能讓自己的未來陷於高度不確定性，因此通常會贊成現狀。BBC也認為，獨派始終沒有給出讓民眾安心的「獨立計劃」。
擁有劍橋法學博士學位的台聯政策會主委許忠信說，蘇格蘭在銀行、保險、海運、貿易、甚至國防等重要事項，都必須仰賴英格蘭，多數人民當然不敢脫離英國獨立。
政大外交系教授林碧炤表示，若從年齡分析，會出來投票者普遍年紀較大，他們對過往大英帝國榮光記憶猶新，對社會福利政策與退休金也特別關注。他們不可能讓自己的未來陷於高度不確定性，因此通常會贊成現狀。BBC也認為，獨派始終沒有給出讓民眾安心的「獨立計劃」。
擁有劍橋法學博士學位的台聯政策會主委許忠信說，蘇格蘭在銀行、保險、海運、貿易、甚至國防等重要事項，都必須仰賴英格蘭，多數人民當然不敢脫離英國獨立。
獨立需還6.3兆
此外，蘇格蘭每人每年從英國獲得1400英鎊（約6.8萬元台幣）補貼，蘇格蘭還積欠英國1300億英鎊（約6.3兆元台幣），蘇格蘭若獨立，補貼消失、債務也須立即償還，甚至必須發行自己的貨幣，所以蘇格蘭人更無法輕易擁抱獨立。
Scots Reject Independence From Britain in Historic Vote
In a decisive vote against independence, Scotland rejected a referendum that would have broken a 307-year union. Alex Salmond, who led the campaign for secession, conceded defeat.
Scotland rejects independence with No vote set for victory
Estimated 55% of voters set to reject Alex Salmond's prospectus for independence with more than half of results declared
No campaign supporters react to a declaration in their favour, at the Better Together Campaign headquarters in Glasgow, Scotland. Photograph: Dylan Martinez/Reuters
Scotland stepped back from the brink of ending the 307-year-old union with England and Wales and was on track to remain part of the United Kingdom by a comfortable margin.
With more than half of Scotland's local authorities having declared including the major cities of Glasgow and Aberdeen, an estimated 55% of voters were expected to reject Alex Salmond's prospectus for independence.
But the yes campaign scored a handful of notable successes, succeeding in the largest city of Glasgow by 53% to 47%, winning 54% in West Dunbartonshire and a convincing 57% win in Dundee.
The no camp won victories in their strongholds of East Lothian, Orkney, and Shetland, but also in areas that could have gone to the yes campaign, including Falkirk, Inverclyde, Eilean Siar and Clackmannanshire. Stirling, Renfrewshire, East Renfrewshire, Angus, Dumfries and Galloway and Midlothian also voted no.
Yet that result raises the risk of further turmoil, with Tories in Westminster threatening to revolt against David Cameron's late and potentially vital vow to quickly increase the Scottish parliament's powers while protecting its spending.
David Cameron and the Queen will both move to calm tensions when they deliver statements on Friday. The prime minister will seek early on Friday, in the words of one cabinet minister, to "cement in" the no vote by outlining how he will deliver the deepening of Scotland's devolution settlement, including handing greater powers over tax and welfare, to Holyrood.
The Queen, who has monitored the referendum with interest, will make a written statement on Friday afternoon. It is understood that her remarks will focus on reconciliation.
The prime minister wants to move fast to show that the three main UK party leaders will live up to their commitments made during the referendum campaign to deliver what Gordon Brown called Home Rule within the UK. Ministers believe it is important to move quickly to avoid a repeat of the 1980 referendum in Quebec.
The triumphalist behaviour of Ontario fuelled the separatist cause that nearly succeeded in a second referendum in 1995.
But Michael Gove, the chief whip, made clear that greater protections would have to be offered to protect the interest of English, Welsh and Northern Irish MPs.
Despite the margin of the no campaign's victory, Alex Salmond will now press for a substantial shift in power from Westminster to Holyrood, after the widely praised independence campaign – branded the "greatest in Scottish history" by the first minister, came within only five points of victory.
Salmond, who appeared to realise defeat was imminent by cancelling an expected appearance at his local count, for Aberdeenshire, is poised to demand that Scotland be ceded sweeping tax powers, buoyed by the significant surge in backing for independence.
He watched the first results from television at his home in Strichen, Aberdeenshire, before flying down by private jet from Aberdeen airport to Edinburgh, his disappointment levened only by a substantial yes vote in Dundee, with 57% voting yes.
For the no campaign there was relief: a spate of authoritative polls in the final days of the campaign had said the vote was on a knife edge, bringing Yes Scotland within touching distance of victory after a dramatic surge in support.
Labour's exit polling in 30 out of Scotland's 32 councils suggested they were on course to win by 55% to 45% – a finding that the early results appeared to confirm.
In mid-August, the two campaigns had been 14 points apart – that gap suddenly closed to just six points, to four and then two. No camp strategists were nervous that the very high turnout, which hit 90% in some areas, could give yes a very narrow victory.
One shock poll for YouGov only 10 days before polling had put the yes campaign ahead for the first time, electrifying the contest and stunning the City; the value of sterling fell and more than £2bn was temporarily wiped off the value of Scotland's top seven companies.
An ICM poll for the Guardian put yes on 49% and no on 51% – a result too close to call.
Some 4,283,392 people had registered to vote in the busiest day in Scottish electoral history. Across the board turnouts were high, often well over 80%, although it dropped to 75% in Glasgow.
But it was lower than expected in the pro-independence areas of Dundee at 78.8% and Glasgow at 75% but higher in areas more likely to vote no, including 89.6% in Edinburgh and a predicted very high number in the Borders.
But as the first results and turnout figures were announced, Yes Scotland's hopes began fading fast. The first to declare was Clackmannanshire, a tiny county in central Scotland with under 1% of the electorate but one seen as a political bellwether.
It was expected to vote yes, but went for no, by 54% to 46% – a figure identical to the last opinion poll of the contest, from YouGov published after the polls closed on Thursday night.
And then a spate of smaller councils declared for no: two, the Orkney and Shetland islands, were expected, but the yes campaign had high hopes for the Western Isles, where both the Scottish National party holds both the Holyrood and Westminster seats. In the event, the no vote narrowly won, by 10,545 to 9,195.
By then, it had emerged that the turnout in Glasgow – the largest electorate in Scotland with 486,000 voters was lower than all other councils, at 75%. Dundee, with 118,721 voters, voted as expected heavily for yes but its turnout too was lower than expected, at 78.8%. Both diminished the likely vote for independence across Scotland. West Dunbartonshire became the second to vote yes, with a 5,000 vote margin over no.
Yes campaigners in Glasgow had been confident that their work registering voters disillusioned with Westminster politics, and engaging with those who had never voted before, would bring in the crucial votes they needed to balance more no-leaning areas of the country.
The campaign mounted a huge get-out-the-vote operation on polling day, with people carriers and coaches in some parts of the city. The final turnout seemed the indicate that their efforts had fallen short.
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